ARGUMENTS，STORIES AND CRIMINAL EVIDENCE A FORMAL HYBRID THEORYPDF|Epub|txt|kindle电子书版本网盘下载

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1 Introduction1

1.1 Rational Theories of the Process of Proof1

1.2 Making Sense of Evidence4

1.3 Reasoning with Evidence in Artificial Intelligence and Law5

1.4 Research Goals7

1.5 Book Outline9

2 Reasoning with Criminal Evidence11

2.1 Facts, Evidence and General Knowledge11

2.1.1 Facta Probanda and Facta Explananda12

2.1.2 Evidence13

2.1.3 General Knowledge and Generalizations17

2.2 The Process of Proof: Discovery, Pursuit and Justification20

2.2.1 Investigation, Trial and the Process of Proof23

2.3 Reasoning in the Process of Proof24

2.3.1 Abductive Reasoning and Inference to the Best Explanation25

2.3.2 Causal Reasoning with Evidence27

2.3.3 Reasoning About Motives and Actions29

3 Two Approaches to Reasoning with Evidence: Arguments and Stories33

3.1 Evidential Arguments34

3.1.1 The Structure of Evidential Arguments36

3.1.2 The Dialectical Nature of Argumentation:Attack and Defeat41

3.1.3 Generalizations and General Knowledge in Evidential Reasoning46

3.1.4 Summary and Evaluation53

3.2 Stories57

3.2.1 The Causal Structure of Stories59

3.2.2 Episodic Structures and Story Schemes63

3.2.3 Explaining the Evidence69

3.2.4 Choosing the Best Explanatory Story for thc Evidence73

3.2.5 Summary and Evaluation77

4 A Hybrid Theory of Stories and Arguments83

4.1 Combining Stories and Arguments85

4.2 Evidential Support, Contradiction and Gaps87

4.3 Story Coherence in the Hybrid Approach89

4.3.1 The Plausibility and Consistency of a Story90

4.3.2 The Completeness of a Story92

4.4 Assessing and Comparing Stories93

4.4.1 Comparing Stories95

4.4.2 A Game for Inquiry Dialogue98

4.5 Evaluation100

A Formal Logical Hybrid Theory of Argumentation and Explanation101

5.1 A Defeasible Logic102

5.2 A Formal Theory for Argumentation109

5.2.1 A Defeasible Logic for Evidential Arguments109

5.2.2 Evidential Arguments113

5.2.3 Attacking Arguments116

5.2.4 Defeat and the Status of Arguments118

5.3 A Formal Theory for Explanatory Stories120

5.3.1 A Causal Theory for Explanations120

5.3.2 Causal Stories121

5.3.3 Stories as Explanations123

5.3.4 Story Schemes128

5.4 A Hybrid Theory of Argumentation and Explanation132

5.4.1 Supporting and Contradicting Stories133

5.4.2 The Coherence of Stories: Plausibility and Implausibility136

5.4.3 The Coherence of Stories: Story Schemes and Completeness138

5.4.4 Assessing and Comparing Stories140

5.5 Dialogues About Proof141

5.5.1 Framework for a Formal Dialogue Game142

5.5.2 Players, Language and Moves143

5.5.3 The Hybrid Theory in a Dialogue145

5.5.4 Commitments146

5.5.5 Comparing Explanations147

5.5.6 Current Winner and Turntaking149

5.5.7 The Protocol151

5.6 An Example of the Dialogue Game154

5.7 Evaluation160

6 Case Study: Murder in Anjum163

6.1 The Murder of Leo de Jager164

6.1.1 Before the 24th: The Cannabis-Growing Operation and Bank Fraud166

6.1.2 The Evidence in the Investigation into Leo's Death167

6.2 An Analysis of the Case: Constructing Stories and Arguments176

6.3 Cause of Death, Murder Weapon and Leo's State178

6.3.1 The Murder Weapon179

6.3.2 The Location Where Leo Died186

6.3.3 Leo's Drugged State188

6.3.4 Summary189

6.3.5 Initial Evaluation190

6.4 The Judiciary's View: Marjan Drugged and Killed Leo193

6.4.1 Marjan's Motives for Drugging Leo195

6.4.2 Marjan's Motives for Leo's Death200

6.4.3 Leo's Death and the Events Afterwards205

6.4.4 Summary of the Improved Judiciary's Story213

6.5 Alternatives to the Judiciary's Story215

6.5.1 Leo Took the Temazepam Himself215

6.5.2 Beekman As the Killer219

6.6 Comparing the Alternatives224

6.7 Evaluation225

7 Related Research on Reasoning with Criminal Evidence229

7.1 Reasoning with Stories230

7.1.1 Bennett and Feldman and Pennington and Hastie230

7.1.2 The Anchored Narratives Theory234

7.1.3 Evaluation238

7.2 Wigmore and the New Evidence Theorists240

7.2.1 Wigmore and the Science of Judicial Proof240

7.2.2 Modified Wigmorean Analysis244

7.2.3 Evaluation248

7.3 Theoretical Models of Inference to the Best Explanation250

7.3.1 Thagard's Explanatory Coherence250

7.3.2 Josephson's Logical Model of Abduction251

7.3.3 Evaluation252

7.4 Keppens and Colleagues' Decision Support System for Police Investigation254

7.4.1 Evaluation255

7.5 Probabilistic Reasoning and Bayesian Belief Networks256

7.5.1 Kadane and Schum's Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Case257

7.5.2 Bayesian Belief Networks and Sensitivity Analysis259

7.5.3 Evaluation of Bayesian Approaches262

8 Conclusions265

8.1 Summary265

8.2 Results269

8.2.1 Reasoning with Criminal Evidence269

8.2.2 Formal Theories of Defeasible Reasoning272

8.3 Suggested Topics for Further Research274

References277

Name Index285

Subject Index289