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Time Series Analysis Smoothing By StagesPDF|Epub|txt|kindle电子书版本网盘下载
- Lewis A.Maverick 著
- 出版社： Paul Anderson Company
- ISBN：
- 出版时间：1945
- 标注页数：153页
- 文件大小：52MB
- 文件页数：164页
- 主题词：
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图书目录
CHAPTER Ⅰ．INTRODUCTION1
Sketch a,Smoothing lines and cycle．2
Table A,San Francisco real estate activity 1920 to 1929．The annual cycle．4
Chart 1,San Francisco real estate activity 1920 to 1929．Application of moving average and trend;the annual cycle．7
The plan of procedure．8
A simplified freehand procedure with no objective checks．8
CHAPTER Ⅱ．THE SMOOTHING LINES10
Section 1:Locating Smoothing Line A10
Section 2:Devices to Aid the Smoothing process11
Moving Averages11
Sketch b,Dotted ends of moving average line．12
The moving cyclical average．13
Sketch c,Correct and incorrect lengths for moving average．14
Sketch d,Tentative smoothing line and phase points．14
Sketch d2,same,with extended time scale．14
Tentative Smoothing line and phase points．15
Section 3:Locating Smoothing Line B16
Table B,A suggested arrangement of the calculations for locating the smoothing lines．18
The moving geometric mean．19
Section 4:Locating Smoothing Line M19
Sketch e,Correcting for curvature．20
Curvature:A systematic error in moving averages;its correction by reiteration of the moving average．21
Use of Smoothing Line M as a guide to a mathematically fitted trend．22
Section 5:Illustration:San Francisco real estate activity,1867 to 1940;two stages of smoothing．22
Table Ca,Locating SL B．25
Table Cb,Locating SL M;first part of calculation．28
Table Cc,Locating SL M,continued,correction for curvature．31
Chart 2,San Francisco real estate activity,1867 to 1940;first stage of smoothing．32
Chart 3,San Francisco real estate activity,second stage of smoothing．33
CHAPTER Ⅲ．THE CYCLES34
Section 1:Characteristics of the cycles34
Measures of the annual cycle．34
Measures of the short business cycle．35
Measures of the major cycle．35
Table D;Arrangement for the calculation of the measures of the several orders of cycles．36
Da,The seasonal or annual cycle．36
Db,The short business cycle．37
Dc,The major cycle．38
Explanation of a use of straight lines．39
Section 2:Illustration:San Francisco real estate activity;Calculation of the measures of the cycles,from the record 1867 to 1940．39
Table Ea,Measures of the short business cycle．40
Table Eb,Measures of the Major cycle．42
Chart 4,Cycles based on the record 1867 to 1940．44
Chart 5,Standard or typical cycles based on the record 1867 to 1940．45
CHAPTER Ⅳ．APPLICATION TO CORRELATION AND FORECASTING46
Section 1:Comparison of time series;correlation46
Section 2:Forecasting46
San Francisco real estate activity based on the record 1867 to 1940．47
Chart 6,A forecast．50
CHAPTER Ⅴ．ANALYSIS OF SEVEN SERIES51
Section 1:Wheat prices52
Table F54
Charts 7,8,9,1059
Table G63
Section 2:Wheat production66
Table H68
Charts 11,12,13,14,1575
Table J80
Section 3:Cotton production83
Table K85
Charts 16,17,18,1990
Table L94
Section 4:Crude petroleum output97
Table M99
Charts 20,21,22,23104
Section 5:Pig iron production111
Table P113
Charts 24,25,26,27120
Table Q124
Section 6:Portland cement production127
Table R129
Charts 28,29,30132
Section 7:Erie Canal freight138
Table T141
Charts 31,32,33,34146
Table U150