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INTRODUCTION The Emergence and evolution of Issues in American Foreign Policy1

GOALS OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY2

CAUSAL FACTORS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY6

Systemic Factors and the Evolution of U.S. Foreign Policies8

Societal Forces and the U.S. Response to Emerging and Reemerging Issues14

Role and Idiosyncratic Factors21

Post-Cold War Grand Strategy25

MODELS OF U.S. DECISION MAKING: RATIONAL ACTOR, ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS, AND GOVERNMENTAL POLITICS26

CHAPTER 1 Conventional Force Structure37

INTRODUCTION37

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE38

THE INITIAL POST-COLD WAR CONVENTIONAL FORCE STRUCTURE DEBATE46

REFINEMENT OF THE DEBATE CONCERNING U.S. CONVENTIONAL FORCE STRUCTURE49

THE STRATEGIC PROBLEM FOR THE EARLY 21ST-CENTURY U.S. CONVENTIONAL FORCES55

CHAPTER 2 Ballistic Missile defense72

INTRODUCTION72

FACTORS LEADING TO THE INITIAL STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE PROPOSAL73

U.S. AND SOVIET COMPETITION IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS75

THE REAGAN STRATEGIC BUILDUP79

THE REAGAN INITIATIVE TO DEVELOP A STRATEGIC DEFENSE SYSTEM83

THE DEClINE OF SDI AS A FOREIGN POLICY OPTION84

THE REEMERGENCE OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE AS A FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE88

THE BUSH JR. ADMINISTRATION, THE NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW, AND THE EMERGING CONTEXT OF NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE98

CHAPTER 3 Weapons of Mass Destruction109

INTRODUCTION109

CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BEFORE THE COLD WAR PERIOD110

CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS DURING THE COLD WAR PERIOD112

Biological Weapons Convention114

Nuclear Weapons115

THE END OF THE COLD WAR AND PROGRESS IN CONSTRAINING WMD117

International Nuclear Agreements118

The Chemical Weapons Convention118

THE REEMERGING ISSUE OF WMD120

ADDRESSING THE REEMERGING ISSUE OF WMD124

CHAPTER 4 International terrorism142

INTRODUCTION142

U.S. POLICY ON TERRORISM144

THE SOURCES OF TERRORISM148

OUTLINE OF THE U.S. POLICY RESPONSE148

DEFINITIONAL QUAGMIRES151

CONVENTIONAL TERRORISM156

NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS TERRORISM158

CYBERTERRORISM AND INFORMATION WARFARE165

The Nature of Cyberterrorism165

U.S. Government Responses to International Cyberterrorism167

COSTS VERSUS BENEFITS AND RISKS VERSUS REWARDS--THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD TERRORISTS172

HOMELAND SECURITY--U.S. RESPONSE TO TERRORISM177

CHAPTER 5 Transnational Organized Crime*194+INTRODUCTION194

TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME GROUPS199

DRUG TRAFFICKING203

DRUG PRODUCTION CHAINS--THE COLOMBIAN COCAINE CARTELS208

Phase One (1974-1980)209

Phase Two (1981-1986)211

Phase Three (1987-1994)213

Phase Four (1994-present)216

Plan Colombia218

CHAPTER 6 Humanitarian Intervention230

INTRODUCTION230

HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF PRE-COLD WAR* U.S. HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION232

HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION DURING THE COLD WAR235

HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN A POST-COLD WAR WORLD238

CASE STUDIES: HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD239

The Kurds, 1991240

Somalia240

Haiti244

Bosnia246

Kosovo249

CASE STUDIES: REFRAINING FROM INTERVENTION253

Afghanistan253

Rwanda256

Sudan257

The Kurds, 1992-2001258

CHAPTER 7 Environmental Degradation275

INTRODUCTION275

THE EMERGENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND OZONE LAYER DEPLETION ON THE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA276

OZONE DEPLETION278

Chlorofluorocarbons278

The Vienna Convention280

The Montreal Protocol281

CLIMATE CHANGE282

Scientific Evidence for Global Warming283

Why Scientific Support for Global Warming was Insufficient to Change Policy284

The issue of Global Warming During the Bush Sr. Administration287

Changes in U.S. Policy During the Clinton Administration289

The Kyoto Protocol291

GENERAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF U.S. POLICY REGARDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND OZONE-DEPLETING COMPOUNDS292

UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS AND THE REEMERGENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AS A CONTENTIOUS FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE FOR THE UNITED STATES292

THE POLICIES OF THE BUSH JR. ADMINISTRATION295

FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR U.S. POLICY REGARDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND OZONE DEPLETION296

Ozone Depletion298

Crosscutting Issues300

CHAPTER 8 Biodiversity311

INTRODUCTION311

HISTORY OF U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE ISSUE OF SPECIES AND HABITAT PROTECTION313

THE ARRAY OF FORCES CONCERNED WITH BIODWERSITY ISSUES314

WILDLIFE PROTECTION320

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna321

Biodiversity Convention322

INVASWE SPECIES PROBLEM324

ONGOING ISSUES CONCERNING BIODIVERSITY325

CLONING330

CHAPTER 9 Sustainable development340

INTRODUCTION340

THE CONFUSED CLASSIFICATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT342

U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE POLICIES IN THE 1950s344

U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE POLICIES IN THE 1960s346

U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE IN THE 1970s348

U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE IN THE 1980s351

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION GROWTH IN THE 1980s352

THE EMERGING CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT353

POPULATION, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY IN THE LATE 1980s AND 1990s355

DEBT BURDEN IN THE 1980s-1990s357

CLINTON, MULTILATERALISM, AND THE MOVEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE358

U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY361

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND DEBT BURDEN362

DEBT RELIEF AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY363

CHAPTER 10 PANDEMIC DISEASE376

INTRODUCTION376

IN THE PAST383

U.S. SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL ACTION AIMED AT ADDRESSING SPECIFIC ENDEMIC AND POTENTIALLY PANDEMIC DISEASES384

HIV/AIDS385

Malaria389

Tuberculosis392

THE RESPONSE OF THE BUSH JR. ADMINISTRATION TO THE ISSUE OF PANDEMIC DISEASE394

PANDEMIC DISEASE AND THE EMERGING CONFLICT WITH U.S. TRADE POLICIES395

CHAPTER 11 International Energy Policy413

INTRODUCTION413

BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE415

THE 1990s AND THE EMERGENCE OF CONCERN FOR INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICIES422

ACTORS AND FACTORS AFFECTING INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY424

Energy Sanctions as a Part of U.S. Energy Policy426

Domestic Factors and U.S. Energy Policy427

FUTURE U.S. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY OPTIONS429

CHAPTER 12 The IMF and International Monetary Management443

INTRODUCTION443

THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE IMF IN THE POST-WORLD WAR II PERIOD446

International Currency Stability446

The Role of the U.S. Dollar449

The United States as the Unilateral Money Manager, 1947-1960450

Political Advantages of Unilateralism to the United States450

The End of U.S. Unilateral Mone3/Management451

THE UNITED STATES AND THE RISE AND DECLINE OF MULTILATERAL MANAGEMENT452

A Diminished U.S. Role452

Establishment of the Group of Ten452

The Creation of Artificial International Currency (Special Drawing Rights)452

The Growing Influence of Transnational Corporations453

Growing Interdependence of the United States, Western Europe, and Japan U.S. Attempts to Reassert Unilateral Money Management454

The Group of Twenty454

EXPANDING INTERDEPENDENCE AND MULTILATERAL MANAGEMENT455

The Impact of Increasing Oil Prices455

The Impact of Policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed)458

U.S. POLICIES AND THE DEBT CRISIS OF THE 1980s459

U.S. Lending and Aid Policies and the Debt of NICs and Other LDCs459

Proposed Solutions to Ending Debt of LDCs460

THE 1980s DEBT CRISIS AND U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE IMF461

Difference in Treatment of NIC Latin American Debt and Other LDC Debt by the United States461

Expansion of Borrowing RIghts to Countries Outside the Group of Ten463

The Baker Plan: A New Strategy for Growth Among Indebted States464

Limited Success of the Baker Plan465

Stopgap Measures (Debt Equity Swaps, Debt Swaps, and Bonds) After the Baker Plan466

Threatened Political Stability of LDCs and Debt Forgiveness467

The Restructuring of Debt Under the Brady Initiative468

THE UNITED STATES, THE IMF, AND THE DEBT CRISES OF THE 1990s: MORE OPEN ECONOMIES468

The Mexican Crisis of 1994469

Lessons in Monitoring the Economic and Political Stability of Loan Recipients469

Dangers ora Rapid Move to Open Economies471

The United States and IMF Loans to Russia: Russia's Transition to an Open Economy471

Stabilizing Russia with Advice and Loans from the IMF472

The Role of Limited IMF Aid to Russia in the Election of Antireformers to the Duma473

Additional IMF Loans for Russia with New Conditional ties474

The Rise in Influence of Oligarchies and Their impact on Political and Economic Stability474

The Failure of New Loans by the IMF to Stabilize Russia and the Continued Need for IMF involvement in Pressuring Russia476

The United States, the IME and the Asian Financial Crisis476

Initial Economic Stability and Growth in East Asia476

Failure of the United States and IMF to Prevent Dangerous Asian Lending Practices477

OUTSTANDING POLICY ISSUES FOR THE UNITED STATES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT479

Moral Hazard480

International Financial Standards and Transparency481

Conditional ties482

CHAPTER 13 International Trade Policy496

INTRODUCTION497

BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE497

KEY ELEMENTS OF THE GATI499

U.S. LEADERSHIP UNDER THE GATT500

THE GROWTH OF INTERDEPENDENCE, THE DECLINE OF THE COLD WAR, AND RENEWED PROTECTIONIST PRESSURES501

The Tokyo Round505

NAFTA507

INTERNATIONAL CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE EMERGING FREE TRADE CONTROVERSY508

CHAPTER 14 Management of International Resources523

INTRODUCTION523

INTERNATIONAL FISHERiES MANAGEMENT524

The Development of Fisheries as a U.S. Foreign Policy Issue525

The Development of a Coordinated U.S. Fisheries Policy527

Pressures for Unilateral Action, 1960-1970529

The Rise and Decline of Multilateral Management Policy--1970-1975531

UNCLOS III531

The U.S. Fisheries Conservation Zone, 1976532

The Unfinished and Reemerging Problem of Protecting the World's Marine Living Resources536

U.S. Options in the Twenty-First Century539

FRESHWATER RESOURCES541

OUTER SPACE543

The Existing International Legal Framework of Outer Space543

Emerging Issues of Outer Space543

THE ANTARCTIC547

The Antarctic Treaty System548

Emerging Issues549

CHAPTER 15 Democratization564

INTRODUCTION564

THE EVOLUTION OF DEMOCRATIZATION AS A GOAL OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY PRIOR TO WORLD WAR II566

Rhetoric and Reality: Democratization and U.S. Foreign Policy, 1945-1975568

Democratization and the Carter Administration571

Democratization as a Policy Issue in the Reagan Administration573

Democratization and U.S. Policy in the Bush Sr. Administration575

DEMOCRATIZATION AS A FOCUS FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY577

THE IMPACT OF THE BROADENING OF DEMOCRATIZATION580

Targeted Democratization Programs581

Assessment of U.S. Democratization Efforts582

CONCLUSION595

ISSUE AREA ANALYSIS595

THE EVOLUTION OF ISSUES ON THE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA596

Technological Innovation597

Economic Interdependence599

Changes in the International System599

THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. POLICY TO ADDRESS EMERGING ISSUES600

Systemic Factors600

Domestic Factors600

Idiosyncratic Factors601

Crosscutting Factors602

THE INTERRELATIONSHIP OF ISSUES606

THE PROCESS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE EMERGENCE AND EVOLUTION OF ISSUES IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY609

Notes609

Index610