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0．宏观经济理论研究的进展和趋势（代序言）1

Preface．Recent developments of China macroeconomic theory1

0．1 A brief review3

0—1 一个简要的回顾3

0—2 讨论的主要问题及其进展6

0．2 Main problems and progress of discussion6

0—3 几个带有导向性的问题20

0．3 Important guided problems20

Chapter I Softlanding:Reform accumulative effect and consistent and stable choice of economic policy25

1．软着陆：改革的累积效应和一致性稳定政策选择25

1．1 Steady growth with low-inflation26

1—1 低通胀下的稳定增长26

1．2 Accumulative effect with gradual reform31

1—2 渐进改革的累积效应31

1—3 持续发展的隐忧38

1．3 Potential anxiety of sustainable development38

1．4 Long-run stable policy choice44

1—4 长期稳定的对策选择44

Chapter II Macro-economy，financial risk and external shocks51

2．总量态势、金融风险和外部冲击51

2．1 Macro-economy s situation:from planned cycle to business cycle52

2—1 总量态势：从计划周期到商业周期52

2．2 Financial risk:from symbol economy to real economy61

2—2 金融风险：从符号经济到实质经济61

2．3 External shocks:from international trade and foreign exchange policy to Hong Kong economy75

2—3 外部冲击：从国际贸易和汇率政策到香港经济75

Chapter III Adjustment:the same theme and inevitable choice83

3．大调整：一个共同的主题和必然的选择83

3—1 是周期波动，还是高速增长后的大调整84

3．1 Fluctuation of cycle or adjustment after high-speed growth84

3．2 Vast margin of Sustainable development and adjustment characters94

3—2 持续发展的广阔余地与大调整的性质和特点94

3．3 Adjustment scopes and directions100

3—3 大调整的内容和方向100

3．4 Summary on policy109

3—4 政策结论109

4．投资、周期波动与制度性紧缩效应111

Chapter IV Investment，fluctuation and contrct effect111

4—1 引言112

4．1 Introduction112

4．2 Investment and fluctuation of economic cycle113

4—2 投资与经济周期波动113

4—3 投资与“宏观负债”121

4．3 Investment and liabilities at macro level121

4．4 policy expansion and institutional contract124

4—4 工具性扩张与体制性收缩124

4—5 从发展和改革的角度理解宏观经济政策组合134

4．5 Macroeconomic policy mix from development and reform134

5．贸易、资本流动与汇率政策141

Chapter V Trade，capital flow and exchange rate policy141

5—1 贸易波动与宏观均衡142

5．1 Fluctuation of trade and macroscopic balance142

5．2 Capital flow and macroscopic balance154

5—2 资本流动与宏观均衡154

5．3 Trade，investment and the balance of payments163

5—3 贸易、投资与国际收支163

5．4 Remarks on theory and policy170

5—4 理论讨论和政策结论170

Chapter VI Budget，structural deflation and institutional barriers176

6．核算性扭曲、结构性通缩与制度性障碍176

6．1 Chinese puzzle:deflation with economic growth177

6—1 中国之谜：通货紧缩伴随经济增长177

6—2 文献评析：对中国通货紧缩的解释179

6．2 Literature survey:explanation of Chinese deflation179

6．3 One solution:structural deviation and structural deflation182

6—3 谜底揭示：结构性偏差与结构性通缩182

6．4 Discussion:defects on national account system and aggravation of structural deviation194

6—4 进一步的讨论：国民经济核算缺陷与结构偏差加剧194

6．5 Remarks on theory and policy207

6—5 理论思考和政策结论207

Chapter VII More effective financial policy216

7．探寻更有效的财政政策216

7．1 Position of fiscal policy in public finance functions218

7—1 财政政策在财政功能中的位置218

7．2 North s Paradox:the difference between fiscal targets and social targets220

7—2 诺斯悖论：财政目标与社会目标的分歧220

7．3 Fiscal expansionary policy and investment multiplier223

7—3扩张性财政政策与投资乘数223

7．4 Tax，expected profit and fiscal policy229

7—4 税率、预期利润与财政政策229

7．5 Loss of unjust tax burden s efficiency and macroscopic result237

7—5 税负不公平的效率损失与宏观结果237

7．6 Debt policy and growth of financial market245

7—6 国债政策和金融市场发育245

7．7 Summary250

7—7 小结250

Chapter VIII Policy transmissions and financial structure improvement253

8．疏通传导渠道 改善金融结构253

8．1 Introduction254

8—1 引言254

8．2 Monetary policy s transmission:channel of currency and credit256

8—2 货币政策传导机制：货币渠道与信贷渠道256

8．3 Money illusion，sidetrack of credit and obstruction of transmission269

8—3 流动性幻觉、信贷旁路与传导阻滞269

8．4 government implicit guarantee and soft budget of enterprise280

8—4 政府的隐含担保和企业的软约束280

8．5 concluding289

8—5 结语289