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第1章 可靠性工程概论1

1.1 Reliability1

1.2 Significance of Reliability Engineering1

Chapter 1 An Introduction to Reliability Engineering1

1.1 可靠性1

1.2 可靠性工程的意义1

1.3 可靠性的特点4

1.3 Features of Reliability4

1.4 可靠性工程的技术内涵6

1.4 Technical Intension of Reliability6

1.5 可靠性和质量管理8

1.5 Reliability and Quality Control8

第2章 故障模型和可靠性函数9

2.1 概述9

2.2 可靠函数之间的关系9

2.2 Relations Between the Different Reliability Functions9

2.1 Introduction9

Chapter 2 Failure Models and Reliability Functions9

2.3 Alternative Approach to Reliability Functions10

2.3 推导可靠函数的另一种思路10

2.4 典型故障率函数11

2.4 Typical Failure Function11

2.5 Cumulative Failure Functions and Average Failure Rate13

2.5 积累故障函数和平均故障率13

2.6 Binomial Distribution15

2.6 二项分布15

2.7 The Poisson Distribution17

2.7 泊松分布17

2.8 指数分布18

2.8 The Exponential Distribution18

2.9 正态分布19

2.9 The Normal Distribution19

2.10 The Weibull Distribution21

2.10 威布尔分布21

2.11 对数正态分布25

2.11 The Lognormal Distribution25

2.12 极值分布26

2.12 Extreme-Value Distrubution26

2.13 The Strength-Stress Model Based on Normal Distribution29

2.13.1 Safety Factor Method29

2.13 基于正态分布的强度应力模型29

2.13.1 安全系数法29

2.13.2 Strength-Stress Model30

2.13.2 强度应力模型30

2.13.3 Some Engineering Regulations33

2.14 基于对数正态分布的强度应力模型33

2.13.3 若干工程规定33

2.14 The Strength-Stress Model Based on Lognormal Distribution33

2.14.2 两个对数正态分布的随机变量的差的分布及其性质34

2.14.1 Nature of Lognormal Distribution Function34

2.14.2 Distribution of Difference of Two Random Variables Distributed Lognormally34

2.14.1 对数正态分布函数的基本性质34

2.14.3 Cumulative Probability Distribution FunctionPf=P(Z<1)36

2.14.3 积累概率分布函数Pf=P(Z<1)的表达式及曲线36

2.14.4 杆塔算例37

2.14.4 Reliability Calcutation of Tower of Transmission Line37

Exercises38

2.15 小结38

习题38

2.15 Summary38

Chapter 3 Reliability Analysis of Non-repairable System42

3.1 Introduction42

第3章 不可修复系统的可靠性分析42

3.1 概述42

3.2 串联系统与并联系统分析44

3.2.1 串联系统44

3.2.1 Series System44

3.2 Series and Parallel Systems44

3.2.2 Parallel System47

3.2.2 并联系统47

3.3 储备系统51

3.3.1 完全切换的储备系统51

3.3 Standby System51

3.3.1 Standby System with Perfect Switching51

3.3.2 不完全切换的储备系统52

3.3.2 Standby System with Imperfect Switching52

3.4 k/n(G)系统53

3.4 An k-out-of-n System53

3.5 应用布尔展开定理分析复杂系统的可靠性55

3.5 Reliability Evaluation of Complex System Using Boolean Expension Rules55

3.6 应用全概率公式分析复杂系统的可靠性57

3.6 Reliability Evaluation of Complex System Using Decomposition Method57

3.7.1 Basic Concepts of Graphs60

3.7 Determination of System Reliability Using Minimum Path Sets60

3.7.1 图的基本概念60

3.7 用最小路集法求系统的工作概率60

3.7.2 Determination of Minimum Path Sets of a System61

3.7.2 求网络最小路的方法61

3.7.3 Accurate Method for Determination of System Reliability Using Minimum Path Sets66

3.7.3 由最小路集求系统可靠工作概率的准确方法66

3.8 Determination of System Unreliability Using Minimum Cut Sets69

3.8.1 Basic Cncepts69

3.8 用最小割集法求系统的故障概率69

3.8.1 基本概念69

3.8.2 Determination of Minimum Cut Sets Using Minimum Path Sets71

3.8.2 由最小路集求最小割集的方法71

3.8.3 由最小割集求系统失效概率的准确方法74

3.8.3 Accurate Method for Determination of System Unreliability Using Minimum Cut Sets74

3.8.4 Approximate Method for Determination of System Unreliability Using Minimum Cut Sets76

3.8.4 由最小割集求系统失效概率的近似方法76

3.9 故障树分析法77

3.9 Fault Tree Analysis77

3.9.1 简介77

3.9.1 Brief Introduction77

3.9.2 Implementation78

3.9.2 实施步骤78

3.10 Failure Modes，Effects and Criticality Analysis（FMECA）82

3.10 故障模式、影响和危险度分析82

3.11 Reliability of Three-State Systems84

3.11 三态系统的可靠性84

3.11.1 Series Systems85

3.11.1 串联系统85

3.11.2 Parallel Systems86

3.11.3 Series-Parallel Systems86

3.11.3 串联-并联系统86

3.11.2 并联系统86

3.11.4 Parallel-Series Systems87

3.11.4 并联-串联系统87

Exercises88

3.12 小结88

习题88

3.12 Summary88

4.1.1 Deterministic Process and Probabilistic Process93

Chapter 4 Markov Process93

4.1 Basic Concepts of Stochastic Process93

4.1.2 Stochastic Process93

4.1.2 随机过程93

4.1.1 确定性过程与非确定性过程93

4.1 随机过程的概念93

第4章 马尔柯夫过程93

4.2 Markov Process96

4.2 马尔柯夫过程96

4.3 Method for Determination of State Probability of Repairable Components Using Markov Process101

4.3 应用马尔柯夫过程求可修复元件状态概率的一般方法101

4.4.1 One-step Transfer Probability Matrix and m-step Transfer Probability Matrix109

4.4 马尔柯夫链109

4.4 Markov Chain109

4.4.1 一步转换概率矩阵和m步转移概率矩阵109

4.4.2 平稳状态概率110

4.4.2 Stable State Probability110

Exercises118

4.5 Summary118

4.5 小结118

习题118

5.1 Introduction121

Chapter 5 Reliability Evaluation of Repairable Systems121

第5章 可修复系统的可靠性分析法121

5.1 概述121

5.2 Frequency and Duration Technique122

5.2 频率和持续时间法122

5.3 吸收状态及平均首次故障时间131

5.3 Absorbing State and Mean Time to First Failure131

5.4 状态的合并137

5.4 Merging of States137

5.5 Mixed Product Approach142

5.5 混合乘积法142

5.6 Approximation for Components in Series145

5.6 串联等值145

5.7 并联等值147

5.7 Approximation for Components in Parallel147

5.8 r/n系统等值150

5.8 Approximation for a r-our-of-n System150

5.9.1 Single Component151

5.9 考虑天气影响时的可靠性估计151

5.9.1 单个元件151

5.9 Reliability Evaluation Considering Influence of Weather151

5.9.3 Components in Parallel155

5.9.2 Components in Series155

5.9.2 串联元件155

5.9.3 并联元件155

5.10 计划检修停运157

5.10.1 元件串联157

5.10 Scheduled Maintenance Outages157

5.10.1 Components in Series157

5.10.2 Two Components in Parallel158

5.11 Overload Outages158

5.10.2 两元件并联158

5.11 过负荷停运158

5.12 总的停运率159

5.12 Total Outage Rate159

5.13 Common-Mode Failures164

5.13 共同模式故障164

5.13.1 Basic Concepts165

5.13.1 两个可靠性不同的元件并联的共同模式故障分析165

5.13.2 Two Components in Parallel Considering Common-Mode Failure166

5.13.2 两个相同元件并联，考虑共模故障166

5.13.3 An r-out-of-n System Considering Common-Mode Failure167

5.13.3 在r/n系统中考虑共同模式故障167

5.14 Nonexponential Repair times169

5.14.1 Method of Supplementary Variables169

5.14 非指数分布的修复时间169

5.14.1 追加变量法169

5.14.2 分级法171

5.14.2 Method of Stages171

5.15 Summary175

5.15 小结175

Exercises176

习题176

Chapter 6 Reliability of Softwares184

6.1 Basic Concepts184

6.2 Product Measures and Process Measures184

第6章 软件可靠性184

6.1 基本概念184

6.2 产品度量和过程度量184

6.3 Defect Density and Fault Density185

6.3 缺陷密度和障碍密度185

6.4 Software Science Measures186

6.4 软件科学度量186

6.5 Failure Rate and Mean Time To Failure187

6.5 故障率和平均无故障时间187

6.6 需要的软件可靠性188

6.6 Required Software Reliability（RELY）188

6.7 Run Reliability and System Performance Reliability190

6.7 运行可靠性和系统行为可靠性190

6.8 Independent Process Reliability191

6.8 独立过程可靠性191

6.9 Reliability Growth Function191

6.9 可靠性增长函数191

6.10 Reliability Models of Common Hardwares192

6.10 公共硬件模型192

6.11 小结196

6.11 Summary196

Chapter 7 Coordination of Reliability and Economics197

第7章 可靠性与经济性的协调197

7.1 概述197

7.1 Introduction197

7.2 冗余经济学198

7.2 Redundancy Economics198

7.3 元件冗余方案的成本最小化199

7.3 Cost Miniminzation for the Unit Redundancy Configuration199

7.4 The Economics of Repair and Maintenance202

7.4 修理和维修的经济学202

7.5 Availability Analysis206

7.5 可用率分析206

7.6 停电损失208

7.6 Outage Cost208

7.6.1 Influences of Outage208

7.6.1 停电影响208

7.6.3 Evaluation Methods for Outage Losses in Various Countries209

7.6.2 Classification of Outage Losses209

7.6.3 各国停电损失的估算方法209

7.6.2 停电损失的分类209

7.7 Values of Outage Losses in Various Countries212

7.7 各国停电损失值的估计212

7.8.1 Clasification and Transformation of Time Value of Currency214

7.8 货币时值的计算及经济分析方法214

7.8.1 货币时值的分类及折算214

7.8 Calculation of Time Value of Currency and Methods for Economics Analysis214

7.8.2 经济分析中常用的比较方法215

7.8.2 Methods for Comparison of Economics Analysis215

7.9 Mothodology of Evaluation of Outage Cost Suited for China216

7.9 适用于中国的停电损失评估方法216

7.9.2 产电比法217

7.9.1 平均电价折算倍数法217

7.9.1 Evaluation of Outage Cost Based on Ratio of Average Electricity Price217

7.9.2 Evaluation of Outage Cost Based on Ratio of Unit Output Value to Electricity Consumption217

7.9.3 Evaluation of Outage Cost Based on Total Owning Cost223

7.9.3 总拥有费用法223

7.10.1 Initial Data224

7.10 停电损失经济计算案例分析224

7.10.1 原始数据224

7.10 Case Study for Outage Cost Evaluation224

7.10.3 四种因素对总拥有费用的影响225

7.10.2 Outage Cost Evaluation225

7.10.3 Analysis of Impacts of 4 Factors on Total Owning Cost225

7.10.2 停电损失费用估计225

7.11 Summary228

Exercises228

习题228

7.11 小结228

8.1 概述231

第8章 电力变压器的可靠性231

8.1 Introduction231

Chapter 8 Reliability of Power Transformers231

8.2 Reliability Indices Evaluation of Power Transformers Based on Statistics232

8.2 基于统计的电力变压器可靠性指标评估232

8.3 Reliability Indices of Power Transformers in China233

8.3 中国电力变压器的统计可靠性指标233

8.4 Analysis of Aging Mechanism for Small and Medium Size Power Transformers with Sealed Oil235

8.4 中小型密封油浸变压器老化机理分析235

8.5 Detecting Dp Based on Accelerated Lifetime Experiments239

8.5 绝缘纸老化过程中Dp值的实验测定239

8.6 Lifetime Evaluation of Small and Medium Size Power Transformers240

8.6 中小型电力变压器寿命估计240

8.7 Summary243

8.7 小结243

References244

参考文献244

Answers to the exercises245

习题答案245

Appendixes249

Appendix1 Values of Typical Functions249

附录1 典型函数数值表249

附录249

Appendix2 Statistics of Ratio of Unit Output Value to Electricity Consumption of Nine Industries in China in 1998255

附录2 1998年中国9个典型行业产电比统计值255